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Thursday, 28 December,
Malt and Hops Divisions are aligned for a historic battle in 2023 DFFL BOWL VI!
Battling for Malt Division's first DFFL Championship is the underdog and cinderella story Knockin on Evan's Door (KED) with an 8-6 Regular Season record.
Point Six (PTS) with an 11-3 Regular Season record is intent on making Hops Division the true "Division of Champions," with 3 of 4 division teams earning 4 of DFFL's 6 Player's Cups.
Both PTS and KED have been to a Bowl Game in the past, and want a victory this week to exercise past franchise demons. PTS entered DFFL BOWL IV versus UGG and came in 2nd. KED faced RAF in DFFL BOWL II, and couldn't topple the repeat champion. However this game goes, one of these two teams will be Champion, and that will be sweet!
MATCHUPS
The Honor Bowl Champion, KED, continues to press the narrative of an underdog this season. It's significant to note that KED was on the outside looking in during the first half of the season. Assessed as a team on the mend in the offseason, it looked as though KED was cooked. Perhaps we can all be humbled by the journey taken by Chad; indeed, it's fairly typical of previous DFFL Championship journeys. In the Honor Bowl, KED faced a goliath in NUT. NUT had the best record, and the most points scored in the 2023 regular season. Yet, KED easily handled NUT's starting lineup and in fact Tyson'd the best team in DFFL to get to the DFFL BOWL VI.
Four in 10 starters exceeded projected points in the Honor Bowl, with a total efficiency of -7% for the starting lineup. NUT had his worst game of the season, only obtaining 53% of expected score. Homers like Rachaad White and Chris Godwin scored decently for KED and have been trending up. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are actually a bit dangerous, and wouldn't it be something to have Baker Mayfield lead a Buccaneers team to playoff glory..perhaps a bit too lofty a goal. But surely, they are helping the KED franchise this season.
PTS faired very nicely as the Varsity Bowl Champion. He almost achieved a total score equal to that in the projections for Week 16; coming in with a 2% under expected point total versus TMW. Amon Ra St. Brown was the MVP of the Varsity Bowl, but homer Brandon Aiyuk and TE Evan Engram played a part in a Six victory as well. PTS essentially Tyson'd one of DFFL's top teams this season, and like KED, ensured no stat correction could change this outcome.
LINEUPS
QB - Jared Goff versus Lamar Jackson.
Both QBs face tough matchups this week. But LaJax is at home against Miami. Since Goff tends to do poorly on the road, and has to face an amped up Dallas with a lot yet to prove I'm taking LaJax to beat Goff by over 10 points. KED Advantage.
RB - Rachaad White versus Christian McCaffrey.
White will be leaned on once again when facing New Orleans at home. The season isn't over, and TB still has to prove they can be the NFC South Champs. At issue is the game Buccs played versus Saints earlier in the season; it wasn't one of White's best games. However, things have changed, and I like White to keep up the press. CMC is CMC and not only that, they face a Washington Defense that is going to be porous versus a CMC kind of runner. San Francisco needs a bump after getting handled by the Ravens at home. I think this is a get well game for them. PTS Advantage.
WR Core - Chris Godwin versus The Sun God; and RawSheed versus Aiyuk.
We have a trending nicely homer WR for KED in a tough matchup against a stellar WR in Amon Ra St. Brown, also in a tough matchup. Goff will need to throw a lot in this game, and I just don't think it means as much to Detroit as it does to Dallas. Godwin will be busy, as he was in the last outing against the Saints. TB has a lot to play for and so I think Godwin bests Sun God's fantasy total this week. Both Shaheed and Aiyuk have better matchups with both trending well in the last couple games. These WRs cancel each other out. KED Advantage.
TE - Evan Engram verus George Kittle.
Engram appears to be the only healthy receiver on the Jaguars, and while Zay Jones is expected to play I think it will be as decoy for another receiver. Kittle remains boom or bust, and its hard to determine if he is going to get 10 targets or 4. He's up against a tough defense when it comes to TEs, so I'm not betting a lot that he achieves more than 12 points. KED Advantage.
FLEX - Walker, Mixon and Likely versus Gibbs, Nacua, and Pacheco.
Two of three for both teams have a lot to play for. Walker and Mixon should come out balling in order to give their teams some playoffs hopes. Likely is a wildcard, as we know Ravens like their TE1s. On the other side, PTS has Nacua and Pacheco who should be playing their hearts out. Rams are in the playoff picture and Chiefs are in position to prove a point. Gibbs should be leaned on, but Detroit is likely going to ensure healthy players going into the post season. Nacua blows up and Walker and Mixon disappoint. PTS Advantage.
Defenses - Buccaneers versus Rams.
Buccaneers played the Saints nicely in Week 4. As a result of Carr's misadventures in New Orleans, I get the feeling the Buccaneers will once again get a coupe of INTs and maybe a Pick Six. The Rams go into New York and play the Devito Taylor combo. Both QBs have quite a bit buoying their morale with the home crowd as they are playing some solid offense the past few games. I think reality sinks in this week and the Giants get destroyed. PTS Advantage.
Kickers - Sanders versus Carlson.
Sanders was instrumental in KED having such a great showing against NUT last week. He had 22 points! It's quite probably a few FGs have to be kicked in this Miami game against Baltimore, which plays well for Sander's fantasy value. Based on the Raiders' game plan of late, I see them going for it on 4th down more than settling for FGs..just a hunch. KED Advantage.
KED bests PTS 4 - 3 among the lineup categories. This is a interesting assessment of the Bowl game, as PTS is favored in the Sleeper projections category.
STARTER EFFICIENCY
The average PTS starter efficiency across the past 14 games is 16% under projections. This puts PTS' projected score closer to 155-162 points.
The average KED starter efficiency across 14 games is 14% under. The projected KED score is closer to 144 - 152 points.
PREDICTION
PTS wins DFFL BOWL VI.
While I'm definitely not confident in this assessment, I value the efficiency gauge more than the category assessment.
GOOD LUCK TO BOTH PTS AND KED!!
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