Round Two, DFFL 2023 Playoffs - Honor Bowl (NUT versus KED)

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Thursday, 21 December,

A battle in the Malt Division is brewing this week where the winner will attempt to win the division's first DFFL Championship! The 2023 DFFL Best Record and Most Points winner, CeeDee's Nuts (NUT) at 12-2 faces off against the 8-6 and Boondoggle Bowl Champion Knockin on Evan's Door (KED).

MATCHUPS

KED had one heck of a week in the Boondoggle Bowl! KED scored his highest game of the DFFL 2023 season. Six of ten starters met or exceeded production and helped KED beat projected points for only the 3rd time this season, and first since Week 3. Rachaad White, KWIII, and the Dolphins Defense were particularly stellar - KWIII's bowl winning score coming on MNF.

NUT has had an amazing 2023 season! NUT leveraged over 13 trades during the season, nabbing the likes of Kyren Williams, Tony Pollard, and Saquon Barkley. These and other savvy moves catapulted NUT to a DFFL 2023 Best Record Award, DFFL 2023 Most Points Award and Champion of Malt Division. NUT maintained a league-best stable of Top 5 fantasy players at multiple positions. League winners such as Travis Kelce, Cee Dee Lamb, AJ Brown, Travis Etienne, and Justin Herbert kept NUT winning game after game. While Herbert's recent injury and stint on IR can't be helpful to NUT's championship plans, he's got a litany of rock stars to help ease his pain.

NFL Week 16 matchups give NUT an edge. KED's players have to face the likes of Baltimore and Dallas Defenses. However, NUT's Sam Howell (unless he doesn't even take the field) versus the Jets is not optimal for such a high scoring fantasy QB position.

LINEUPS

QB - Sam Howell v. Lamar Jackson.

Howell might not even play a full game! This given for 3 quarters last week he managed one TD; his relief Jacoby Brissett scored 2 at the end of the game. He gets the Jets Defense this week, so that further complicates things. LaJax, who has been pretty good over the past couple weeks, gets to play in Cali against the 49ers...a brutal matchup. KED Advantage.

RB - Bijan Robinson v. Rachaad White.

This has been a tough season for the DFFL 2023 #1 Rookie pick. Mostly its due to inept coaching in Atlanta. However, the on again off again starting QB, Taylor Heineke, will be under center and likely leaning on the RB. Bijan has a good matchup with Indiana as well, so I like his numbers this week. KED's homer RB, Rachaad White, is the RB4 and truly on the uptrend for fantasy production. He's got a soft matchup with Jacksonville in a game where points are gonna get scored. KED Advantage.

WR Core - CeeDee Lamb and AJ Brown v. Chris Godwin and Diontae Johnson.

Both sides have great matchups throughout. Lamb has slowed down a bit in scoring over the past couple games, but given the day Dallas had against Buffalo I'd hate to be Miami's Defense - bounce back game for CeeDee and Dallas Offense. AJ Brown has some solid matchups to end the season, but managed only 12 points last week. He's been trending down each game since Week 13. It's a little bit of a boom/bust with Philly's offense of late, and that brings risk in fantasy playoffs. KED's core are not ideal. However, Godwin had his best game of the season last week, and gets a softer matchup with Jacksonville. He probably continues to bring in at least 10 targets and that means some solid fantasy points. Diontae started the season abysmally! But he's been trending up the past few games. Based on the boom/bust of his production and decreasing target share, he brings huge risk. NUT Advantage.

TE - Travis Kelce v George Kittle.

The TE3 in KC just hasn't been quite the fantasy scorer owners were getting used to the past few years. While NE defense is no joke, 6 points from the likes of Kelce is tough to swallow. No worries though, he's playing against Vegas and he's more likely to get 18-20 points than he is 6-10...just saying. Kittle on the other hand is on again off again in 2023. He can pull in 25 points one week and 0.6 another (wk5 and wk6). He's got a tough matchup with the Ravens, so its gonna be tough to get that boom game. NUT Advantage.

FLEX - Etienne, Pollard, Kyren v. KWIII, Mixon, Likely.

Etienne gets a matchup with Tampa Bay and he doesn't do half bad on the road. He may continue to get leaned on as Trevor Lawrence is hurt. Tony Pollard goes to Miami and will attempt to get back in the double digits fantasy-wise; though I don't put much stock in a big game - Miami does alright against the run. Kyren 'the Siren' Williams. All the Rams players should be started. They are all very good of late! KED's KWIII has a new injury to tend to - shoulder and faces a stout run defense in Nashville....ouch. Additionally, Joe Mixon faces a division rival in Pittsburgh; the last time they played he only got a meager 8 points. Still, I think he does much better than that this week as something is very wrong in Steelerville. Finally, KED has Isaiah Likely in at flex, yes, a TE. However, Likely is a Baltimore Ravens TE, and they score like WR1s. NUT Advantage.

NUT bests KED 3 - 2 among the lineup categories, but the wildcard is definitely in the Flex where honestly it could easily go KED's way.

STARTER EFFICIENCY

The average NUT starter efficiency across the past 14 games is 16% under projections. This puts NUT's projected score closer to 168-172 points.

The average KED starter efficiency across 14 games is 14% under. The projected KED score is closer to 138 - 142 points.

PREDICTION

NUT wins the Honor Bowl and gets to DFFL BOWL VI.