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Thursday, 21 December,
Barley and Hops Division Champions, The 10-4 Mega Watts (TMW) and the 11-3 Point Six (PTS), meet in the Varsity Bowl!
MATCHUPS
A funny thing happened to TMW on the way to the craps table, he won and moved beyond the first round! The Watts avenges last year's loss and stands one game away from winning their first DFFL Players Cup.
PTS, who sat out the first round on account of having the 2nd best record in DFFL, now stands ready to finish off the demons of 2022. The Six intends to become the third Hops Division franchise to win a DFFL Championship.
PTS has had the kind of season many of us simply envy. His Franchised player, CMC, actually played up to and past expectations. CMC is the RB1 in 2023 and handed PTS win after win while playing and helping his homer 49ers succeed. You just can't get better than that in fantasy football. The Six lost JK Dobbins out the gate this season, but really didn't need him. The RB depth for PTS is one of the best in the league. Jared Goff and the litany of Lions players have played very well, costing PTS very little in CAP. Finally, amazingly PTS made only one trade during the Regular Season - trading with KED to receive DFFL Rookie 3rd Rounder and NFL sensation, Puka Nacua.
Rivalry Bowl Champion, TMW, had a solid Week 15. Five of ten starters either met or exceeded projected production. David Njoku had his second straight varsity performance, blowing by expected points. And for the 4th week in a row, Deebo Samuel played lights out compared to Sleeper projections. Much to the defeated UGG's chagrin, former UGG 1st Pick in the DFFL Rookie Draft, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH) started for TMW and gained a whopping 22 points to his projected 15. It's been said that CEH requested a starter position, and when agreed upon, left mumbling something to the effect of, "I'll get that UGG, if its the last thing I do!"
NFL Week 16 matchups reflect a slight better week for PTS' players. The toughest defenses faced are the Chiefs for his Kicker and Baltimore for a WR and RB. TMW has Dallas, Baltimore and Buffalo defenses attempting to stymie player production.
LINEUPS
QB - Brock Purdy vs. Jared Goff.
Purdy hasn't had a bad fantasy game all year. But they haven't played Baltimore - an AFC juggernaut - either. On the other side, Goff has had a couple duds for fantasy. One against Chicago..huh?..and the other against the Baltimore Ravens! Purdy has more upside, but Goff could easily go BOOM! against Minnesota. TMW Advantage.
RB - Derrick Henry v. CMC.
CMC doesn't have bad fantasy games...this is fact. Henry has been way more boom and bust than a fantasy manager can stand. It's almost as if DNF was on to something, trading him in the offseason. Henry has a great matchup vs. Seattle, and CMC goes against a stout Baltimore Defense. I just can't see CMC having a worse game than Henry at this point. PTS Advantage.
WR Core - Evans and Samuel versus ARSB and Aiyuk.
Deebo is a better fantasy wideout than Aiyuk. The numbers don't lie. Both are going against Baltimore Defense, but I see Deebo as more likely to get fantasy numbers as a result of his play style. Mike Evans and the TB Buccs are still playing like they have teams right on their heals - Saints. So I see Evans getting a great game against Jacksonville. Amon Ra is a little too boom and bust at the end of the season. Though I think he'll be leaned on when the Lions face their division rival Vikings. TMW Advantage.
TE - David Njoku v. Evan Engram.
Njoku with Joe Flacco under center is tops for fantasy! He's managed 26 and 23 points over the past two weeks. Engram has faced tough defenses over the past couple games, but managed 32 points against Cleveland only to get 6 points versus Baltimore. Baltimore apparently has a really good defense...beware to all those positions playing them this week. TMW Advantage.
FLEX - DHop, Tyreek and Keenan versus Gibbs, Metcalf and Pacheco.
Is Tyreek 100% healthy? I don't think so. Add that to playing against a Dallas Defense who will be watching his every route, and I'm not big on him this week. DHop is trending poorly and I'm not sure the QB situation in Nashville. Could be a bad week (again) for him. Keenan Allen should be back on the field but the matchup is brutal! On the other side, Gibbs is trending up with the last two games getting 19 and 28 points. DK Metcalf appears stuck at lucky 13 in fantasy points the past two weeks, and his target share is dropping. Meanwhile, Isaiah Pacheco is trending very well in the latter weeks of the season. It's almost as if KC finally wants to get him more active in the game. I suppose PTS could even start Puka, which probably wouldn't change the success he's probable to have at FLEX. PTS Advantage.
TMW bests PTS 3-2 among the lineup categories. A lot of unknowns, booms and busts. Not to mention injury concerns.
STARTER EFFICIENCY
The average PTS starter efficiency across the past 14 games is 18% under projections. This puts PTS' projected score closer to 145-153 points.
The average TMW starter efficiency across 14 games is 9% under. The projected TMW score is closer to 160-165 points.
PREDICTION
TMW wins the Varsity Bowl and gets to DFFL BOWL VI.
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