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Some messes need the toughest cleanup
Thursday, 28 December,
Barley Division's perennial juggernaut Dy'Nasty Fan'Tasy (DNF) with a record of (5-9) arrives in a foreign and alien place for the franchise's 6 year DFFL history. They meet Hops Division's More Than a Thielen (MTT) with a (4-10) record who has been flirting with a Toilet Bowl showing for a couple years now.
MATCHUPS
MTT arrives in the Toilet Bowl having lost 7 straight games. MTT has faced a 2023 season of crushed expectations. Namesake Adam Thielen and Scary Terry are probably two of the biggest disappointments. Carolina's offense didn't take off this year, and Washington remains a bit of a dumpster fire. While Davonte Smith and Jordan Addison have been solid rookie WRs, they haven't been consistent enough to counter the many problems on roster. Injury sidelined rookie sensation Tank Dell right at the point of solid fantasy production, and Will Levis and Dalvin Cook just couldn't get going. Even Russell Wilson, with an improved fantasy year, couldn't manage to keep his starting job. A few of us are aching for the season to be over, and I get the sense MTT is one of them.
DNF has had a godawful season! Entering the season with what was assessed as a Tier I team by all accounts, the Fan'Tasy's starters couldn't get it right from Week 1. Disappointments are numerous, but DNF expected way more from his cadre of running backs. Dameon Pierce, while injured last season, had all the expectations of improving in a solid Texans offense. Instead, he yielded too much to the new addition Deven Singletary. Jonathon Taylor started the season on IR due to contract disputes. He then spent the rest of the season injured and / or mediocre in onfield performance - splitting reps with Zach Moss. DNF's WR core was just as disappointing. Drake London, in an Arthur Smith offense with two mediocre QBs tossing him the ball, was boom or bust week-to-week. Christian Watson faced multiple injuries and too many games getting chemistry with Jordan Love. Justin Jefferson, faced with a multi-game IR stint, followed by catching balls from disappointing QBs, couldn't help DNF mid-season. Things look potentially better for DNF in 2024, but the Toilet Bowl was just not part of this year's predictions.
LINEUPS
QB - Jordan Love versus Will Levis.
Jordan Love has been on a roll of late, scoring in the 30s 4 of the past 6 games. Unfortunately, the last time he played Minnesota he barely got 23...and that was at home! This week's game is at Minneapolis. However, things have changed. GB is fighting for the playoffs, and he's got a healthy Aaron Jones in his backfield. MTT brings Will Levis to this fight, but will Levis break out of the teens and achieve the kind of game he had in Week 8 when he pulled down 38 points against Atlanta? Will Levis show he's the QB for Nashville? He's done it before and Seattle could be the game Levis gets back in his groove. I'm not buying it until I see it more consistently. DNF Advantage.
RB - Jonathon Taylor versus Antonio Gibson.
The NFL matchup favors JT. Let's face it, the talent favors JT over Gibson. However, Gibson is the only healthy back in Washington at the moment. JT will cede some snaps to Zack Moss; probably not enough to prevent 25-30 points however. While Brian Robinson is alleged to be back on the field healthy, I'm not sure he gets even 25% of the snaps in Week 17. Gibson is going against a stingy 49er Defense, smarting from the hurts donut given them by the Ravens. DNF Advantage.
WR Core - Justin Jefferson and Drake London versus Jordan Addison and Terry McLaurin.
Normally JJ and Jordan Addison would be in for a stellar performance against GB, but this isn't Kirk Cousins' offense anymore. However, Nick Mullens is going to have to throw to someone. That healthy someone is JJ, who managed to pull in a very respectable 27 points last week under Mullens. The rook Jordan Addison has an ankle issue, and his use will probably not be at 100%, if he suits up at all. Poor Drake London. He's only had double digit fantasy games in 2 of the past 5 games since Bye week. The defenses he's going against fully comprehend that he is the receiver threat to guard outside the TEs on this Atlanta offense. On the other side, Terry McLaurin hasn't had a great season. He's been boom or bust with one goose egg game. The only thing he has going for him is Jakobi Brissett as starting QB. McLaurin achieved 27 fantasy points when Brissett was under center late in Week 15. Maybe he gets into the 20s this week. DNF Advantage.
TE - CHONK verus Goedert.
Aside from Week 15, Chonk has been getting 6+ targets since Week 13. The offense is starting to utilize this weapon. However, even with the uptick in targets, the fantasy points have been hit or miss - mostly miss. The Titans are going against the Texans which should be a TE easy defense. But it was Week 13 where Chonk had 3 targets that they played the Texans last. Will they rely on the run? Probably. MTT's Goedert is one of the more more targeted TEs in the NFL. Normally this would be gold. However, the targets only yielded double digit fantasy performances in one game since Week 7. The trend has been a steady downturn until last week, where Goedert got up to 14 points off 7 catches. Since Chonk caught a TD last week and it appears Goedert isn't a redzone target....DNF Advantage.
FLEX - Brian Robinson, Christian Watson and Tyjae Spears verus Devonta Smith, Adam Thielen and Rashee Rice.
Robinson is back on the field but facing a tough run defense from San Fran and competition from Gibson. Watson may get back on the field after his latest injury, and if he does, he'll pull down 25-30 points easy. Love likes him some Watson, and when he's in the lineup on the field Love is throwing his direction. Spears is slowly but surely getting more play time in the Titans offense, but only managed 6 fantasy points when he played against Houston in Week 13. That game was his only single digit performance in 4 games.
MTT's Devonta Smith only had to catch all of his 5 targets to defeat RAF last week, and he is one of the more dangerous fantasy players in the league. Arizona is playing to just get to the offseason, so though on paper they look like they could be an obstacle to Smith's production I suspect Smith will get his. Thielen came into the season a fantasy point bruiser, but he's slowed down significantly since the Panthers' Bye in Week 7. He's got a nice game against Jacksonville this week and could easily continue the solid production he had last week with 17+ points. Finally, Rashee Rice has been blowing up the points as the WR1 in KC. He has a nice matchup at home versus Cincinnati, which will likely be a KC blowout. MTT Advantage.
DEFENSE - The KC Chiefs are a better defense than the GB Packers, but GB gets Nick Mullens who threw 4 INTs last week against Detroit. Of course, Jake Browning has been on the downtrend of late, throwing his fair share of INTs - 3 last week in Pittsburgh. DNF Advantage.
KICKERS - Tyler Bass kicks ass, well, not since the Bye week in Week 13. Dude can't get out of the single digits. He's facing a NE team where in the last meeting, Week 7, he only achieved 5 fantasy points in the matchup. BUT...Brandon McManus has been terrible of late! He's missed a lot of FGs since Week 12, and pulled down a goose egg for MTT last week. Had he made one FG last week, MTT would have narrowly defeated RAF and saved the franchise from a Toilet Bowl showing. DNF Advantage.
DNF bests MTT, 6- 1 among the lineup categories. MTT has a solid Flex, and if they can overachieve its possible MTT finds victory.
STARTER EFFICIENCY
The average DNF starter efficiency across the past 14 games is 18% under projections. This puts DNF's projected score closer to 130-136 points.
The average MTT starter efficiency across 14 games is also 18% under projections. The projected MTT score is closer to 114 - 120 points.
PREDICTION
DNF wins DFFL TOILET BOWL V; meaning MTT is crowned 2023 Toilet Bowl KING.
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