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Thursday, 14 December,
Hops Division sends Cranberries ala Bart (CAB) with a 9-5 record to the BOONDOGGLE BOWL to take on one of the DFFL's unlikely regular season heros, Malt Division's Knockin on Evan's Door (KED) with an 8-6 regular season record.
MATCHUPS
This isn't KED's first "rodeo," as he has been one of Malt's tougher teams, and DFFL playoff fixture. His best players throughout the season were Lamar Jackson - Top 5 QB, George Kittle - Top 5 TE, and since mid-season Joe Mixon. While KED lacks little when it comes to QB, RB and TE, he suffers from near-constant WR inconsistency and busts.
CAB arrives in the DFFL Playoffs after having his worst season in 2022. Indeed, last year's Toilet Bowl King was poised for a solid year with a litany of picks for the 2023 Rookie Draft and some solid second and third year rookies postured to take off in points. However, it wasn't the slam dunk season CAB thought he'd have in September. He has had many more disappointments in his starting lineup than he's had gold performers. Disappointments named Josh Jacobs, Rhamondre Stevenson, Cooper Kupp, Jalen Waddle, Garrett Wilson....the list is long. While Kupp appears gtg after spending most the season injured, he hasn't givin CAB $80 worth of production, that's for sure. On the bright side, CAB had a pretty decent season from Chris Olave, and he's enterting the playoffs with many players ramping up their games. James Conner, Breece Hall, and Justin Fields are healthy and ready for big games.
NFL Week 15 matchups are relatively even for CAB and KED with probably a slight edge to KED based on some key CAB players going against some stout defenses.
LINEUPS
QB - CAB's Justin Fields versus KED's Lamar Jackson.
I'd put money on LaJax having a better game than Fields. Fields is up against a beat up but still very stingy Cleveland. He's going to do a lot of running, but Cleveland will probably be ready to put a wall in front of him. LaJax has Jacksonville and he's got a ton of targets to keep that defense guessing. KED Advantage.
RB - CAB's James Cook versus KED's KWIII.
Here's where I have more faith in KWIII's performance at home vs. Philly than Cook's chances at home against a tough Dallas Defense...but not by much. Point spread for Cook will probably be 10-15. KWIII, so long as he can keep Charbonnay on the sidelines, can probably get to 18-20 points. This could easily be the other way around, but I feel Dallas is clicking much better than Philly; Seattle could easily surprise. KED Advantage.
WR Core - CAB's dudes get a slight edge, though Waddle has to beat the Jets Defense. Olave is questionable, but I suspect he's got an 18-24 point performance against the Giants. KEDs goobers at WR are just not looking that good. Sure, Diontae Johnson gets targets, but I'm worried about the QB situation against Indy. Rashid Shaheed, one of KED's steals during the draft, hasn't been 100%. He's a field spreading route runner when he gets targeted, and if he's not able to get the separation and speed I don't see how he gets the catches to be past 10 points. CAB Advantage.
TE - CAB's Dalton Shultz versus KED's Top 5er, George Kittle.
Shultz is a risky play as his QB is probalby not going to suit up; even if he does, will be optimal under centr? Houston could be in 'run' play mode all game against Indy, but even in this situation its' good to be the TE - pulling down some short passes on 3rd downs. Especially, when so many of Houston's pass catcher are hurt. Kittle worries me a little. He didn't get to 3 points last time 49ers played Arizona, and he's kind of due a dud game. But Kittle is Top 5 and definitely has chemistry with Brock Purdy. I don't think he'll go as low as 3 points, but my ceiling can't really go beyond 10 in this game. CAB Advantage.
FLEX - CAB and KED are quite evenly matched. However, if Jacobs sits, CAB will have to go for a pass catcher in Garrett Wilson, or James Conner against the 49ers. I think the edge goes to KED. Mixon is balling right now, and Browning uses Mixon more than Burrow did. Rachaad White is going to be leaned on against Minnesota. In 3 of the last 4 games, White has either excelled over projected score or come very, very close. KED"s TE Isaiah Likely is getting Mark Andrews-like targets, which can only lead to games of 15-20 points. KED will need big games from his Flexers to beat back the scores Kupp and B. Hall are sure to have. KED Advantage.
KED bests CAB 3 - 2 among the lineup categories, but this should be a close game which will need the full shedule of games to decide the winner.
STARTER EFFICIENCY
The average CAB starter efficiency across the past 14 games is 21% under projections. This puts CAB's projected score closer to 127-130 points.
The average KED starter efficiency across 14 games is 14% under. The projected KED score is closer to 145 - 150 points.
PREDICTION
KED wins the Boondoggle Bowl and moves on to the DFFL Second Round.
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