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Thursday, 14 December,
Two Barley Division franchises, The 10-4 Mega Watts (TMW) and the 7-7 UGG Life (UGG), meet in the Rivalry Bowl!
MATCHUPS
Both teams were here in the playoffs in 2022 - UGG with the 1st Round Bye, and TMW a first round loss to RAF in the Rant Bowl. TMW has a much better record than 2022 and a number of Top 5 players poised to make this year different and to avenge a 2022 post season dud. UGG - DFFL's Comeback Kid - has been in the fight of his life all season.
TMW has had at least 4 WRs providing significant production on a weekly basis. Add this to a QB in Tua Tagovailoa who has put the Dolphins in an enviable post-season position, and you have a recipe for DFFL team success. TMW only came with 40 points of winning the DFFL 2023 Scoring Record! Quite an achievement and not a bit surprising when looking at his lineup. TMW's one area of inconsistency has been at RB, where he has been able to rely on the very capable services of Derrick Henry; however, he hasn't been the production king of previous years. TMW has had difficulty at TE. When Mark Andrews was injured, he had to make some trades to get a lesser quality product in that position with David Njoku. Having said this, the start of Joe Flacco in Cleveland was a boost to all positions; particularly Njoku in Week 14.
Conversely, UGG has been in wins-loss struggle from Week 1. He's the Comeback Kid as a result of going 2-5 to start the season - looking like a complete washout, followed up by a playoff game seizing record of 5-2 in the second half! UGG's DFFL season is the who's who of disappointments. After losing Nick Chubb to injury, a trade for Aaron Jones yielded near nothing for UGG. Dealing with injury to QB Joe Burrow left his 2022 rookie sensation Ja'Mar Chase with only a fraction of expected production. Austin Ekeler, Amari Cooper - big money contracts for UGG, left him earning multiple Meme, Cliffhanger and Shamrock awards. The latter season trades that UGG made, bringing in Cole Kmet and Michael Pittman, Jr. were what the doctor ordered and helped, along with solid potential from D'Andre Swift and Calvin Ridley, UGG get into the playoffs.
NFL Week 15 matchups are relatively even for TMW and UGG with a slight edge to TMW with more starters going against softer defenses.
LINEUPS
QB - UGG's Dak Prescott versus TMW's Brock Purdy (Mr. Irrelevant).
Dak is going against a beatable Buffalo team, but this one will be in Western New York. While Dak might be the best QB playing right now, this is not an optimal matchup. They don't much like Dallas Cowboys up in those there parts, and the Bills are fighting for their post season life. Purdy goes against Arizona in Glendale, where he's almost certainly looking at a 35-40 point game. TMW Advantage.
RB - UGG's D'Andre Swift versus TMW's Derrick Henry.
This is a tough one! Will UGG get the early-season-Swift? Or will Swift continue to disappoint versus expectations? In the last 4 games, Swift has only got above 12 points once, and that was the first of the 4 games - 22.2. However, the next 4 game schedule for Swift is mouthwatering. If Hurts hands off the ball instead of personally attacking those defenses on his feet, Swift could be a league winner. It's 50/50 that Swift can produce. TMW's Henry has been boom or bust all season long. He has beat projections in 5 of the last 7 games though, and is trending well heading into DFFL's post season. TMW Advantage.
WR Core - TMW's wideouts are the royalty of fantasy point production thes season. Tyreek Hill, while assessed as still smarting from an early game injury in Week 14, is a must-start. Since the Bye Week in Wk10, he's gone 30, 26, 33, and 11. The 11 performance due to the injury. Big Mike Evans is a WR7 and has had multiple 20+ point games this season. At issue was the very unusual 2.3 points last week against Atlanta - his worst performance of the year. Additionally, he doesn't do well when playing away games. While I don't see Green Bay holding him below 10, I'm not sure he breaks 15. UGG's MPJr. has been trending very well in the latter weeks of the season, nabbing 20+ points every game since the Week 11 BYE! He's at home versus Indy's Defense though, and that might put the kabbash on Jr. getting anything over 15 points. Boom or Bust CalRid is UGG's other receiver. He has only had 4 20+ point games all season as Trevor Lawrence's #1 WR. Very disappointing! Now that Trevor isn't 100%, I feel his bust days are still ahead of him. His ceiling this week is probably 10 points sadly. TMW Advantage.
TE - UGG's Cole Kmet versus TMW's David Njoku.
Joe Flacco has made Njoku great again, and based off his Week 14 performance and chemistry with Joe I'd be willing to bet some green that he gets over 15 points this week. On the flip side, UGG's Cole Kmet was working his way inside the Top 5 all year. However the last few games have been very disappointing production wise - even with Fields back under center. He also gets a terrible matchup with Cleveland who has had TE's numbers. TMW Advantage.
FLEX - Here's where things get interesting for both teams. I really like Ekeler to get a huge game tonight against the Vegas Raiders. With a new QB under center, Ekeler has no excuse but to be the talented back we all expect him to be game - to - game. I could easily see him get 30+ points tonight. Since the early season and post injury, David Montgomery has been less of a factor in the run game. Still he's getting over 14 points a game since the Week 9 BYE. I just don't like his chances against an increasingly stingy Denver Defense. I think he gets within the 12-15 point window. Finally for UGG, Brandin Cooks had a bad week 14. About every other game, he duds one. He's due a boom game and he's more than capable of getting multiple touchdowns, but I don't see a performance higher than 12-15 points. TMW on the other hand has some interesting dilemmas for his FLEX. Nico Collins may not play, and if he does, he won't be 100% nor taking balls from Stroud - most likley. It may be that bencher Aaron Jones finally gets on the field and gets more points than Nico this week. TMW is in good hand with Deebo Samuel! Deebo who is going against an easy Cardinals Defense, has gone 24, 42 and 38 in the last 3 games! He could easily get a 40 Burger this week. Finally TMW has Deandre Hopkins versus Houston. This is risky in that Hopkins remains boom or bust with Will Levis. He has been trending up in the last 2 games, though. I like this matchup for him and I think his floor is 15 points. TMW Advantage.
TMW bests UGG 5- 0 among the lineup categories. This feels like a potential blowout if TMW's players do what they've done all year.
STARTER EFFICIENCY
The average UGG starter efficiency across the past 14 games is 26% under projections. This puts CAB's projected score closer to 120-123 points.
The average TMW starter efficiency across 14 games is 9% under. The projected KED score is closer to 160-165 points.
PREDICTION
TMW wins the Rivalry Bowl and moves on to the DFFL Second Round.
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